To monitor the effects of the Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on the Egyptian environment, scientists move Egypt to study these effects,
And developed Dr. Noha Samir minimum (Professor at the Institute of Environmental Hydraulics Environmental Studies and Research at the University of Ain Shams) a mathematical model for the management of the High Dam in Aswan Reservoir;
To simulate the operation of the dam under different conditions such as climate change, and build a renaissance, with the analysis of the optimal operating rules of the reservoir dam, and took a large number of goals in mind, including hydroelectric power production, and supply of water for irrigation purposes.
Dr. Noha used hydrological future scenarios to evaluate the expected effects of the dam, taking into account the possible future scenarios of global climate change during cent next year.
The results showed that if the filling period of the Renaissance Dam Reservoir three years until 2017 -as Iqal- it will be seriously affected by the Egypt and Sudan's share of the water shortage is estimated at 24 billion cubic meters annually.
After the completion of the construction of the dam will be the loss of 5 billion cubic meters per year, divided between the share of Egypt and Sudan, and that climate change could increase the project risk, the first increase in the proportion of minimum water levels in the High Dam reservoir where the predicted model 10% less than the minimum water level necessary for the operation of the High Dam in the years 2017-2070.
The model also predicted 40% less than the minimum level of water required to operate the High Dam in the third period (2070-2099). And calculates the expected impact on hydroelectric power generated from the dam, the model predicted a shortage of energy is estimated at 10% in the first period (2017-2040), and a decrease in the energy range between 16 and 30% in the period (2040-2070), and acute shortages energy range between 30 and 45% in the period from (2070-2099).
Poire .. and earthquakes
Adds Dr. Noha that the completion of construction of the dam mentioned within three years will result in the set-aside nearly one million acres of fertile land from the agricultural wealth of Egypt produced, and then destroy the green and the ground of the wealth of food, including blowing famine ominous private.
Given the steady increase of the population, they are more than ninety million people, as confirmed by many geologists .. Vsirtb the creation of this dam earthquakes.
For his part, says Dr. Magdy Tawfik, a professor of aquatic environment science, Ain Shams, the solution lies in rationalizing the exchange amount of water, in the pot, which will reach the limits of Egypt, and an estimated 40 billion cubic meters.
He continues that this requires the application of the policy of rationalizing mandatory to agriculture, which consumes 80% of the water resources, as well as what is used in industry and domestic purposes, as well as the inevitability of fruitful cooperation with the Nile Basin countries.
This requires several steps, including a change compulsory irrigation methods and replaces the means flood irrigation drip irrigation or sprinkler covered with canals and drains, so that the water in pipes to reduce losses from evaporation, and immediately stop the cultivation of consuming crops for water binge, such as rice, sugar cane, and the processing and re the use of industrial wastewater, health and agriculture.
Also included steps to stop water agriculture exchange exchange Delta region in northern lakes, estimated at millions of cubic meters, in order to restore the vitality of the lakes, and water use in agriculture again.